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Evaluating the Brad Lidge Trade

Who got the better of this trade?

The Houston Astros traded pitcher Brad Lidge and utility player Eric Bruntlett to the Philadelphia Phillies for OF Michael Bourn, RP Geoff Geary and 3B Mike Costanzo. An interesting trade since it involves Lidge, who has as live an arm as anybody in baseball. Who got the better of this trade? Let's go through the player's stats and see if we can figure that out.

Phillies Get:

Brad Lidge - will be 31 years old and has some of the best K rate's in baseball. Was a brilliant pitcher in 2004-2005 going 10-9 with a 2.09 ERA/ 14.3 K rate/ 2.9 BB rate/ 71 saves. Was a lousy pitcher in 2006 going 1-5 with a 5.28 ERA but maintained a high K rate of 12.5, though his BB rate rose to 4.3. He did save 32 games. Last season he went 5-3 with a 3.36 ERA/ 11.8 K's/ 4.0 BB's/ 19 saves.

No question that Lidge has great talent. His overall career numbers are: 23-20 record/ 3.30 ERA/ 123 saves/ 12.6 K's/ 3.8 BB's. While his BB rate is a little high his K to BB ratio is great at 3.3. Lidge is a pitcher who is well worth taking a risk on. Very few pitchers can K 12.6 batters per 9 innings and that's what the Phillies have now got.

Eric Bruntlett - nothing more than a throw in. Not much of a hitter.

Astros Get:

Michael Bourn - 24 year old OF. His game is speed and scoring runs. In 1,552 minor league at bats Bourn hit .284 with a .378 OBP and a .392 SLG. He stole 163 bases and scored 280 runs. His run average in the minors is .180. So far in the majors Bourn has batted 127 times and hit .268 with a .340 OBP and a .362 SLG. He's already stolen 19 bases and scored 31 runs. That's a very high run average of .244 probably because Bourn was pinch running. The Astros want to plug Bourn into the top of their order and if he can score runs at the same rate he did in the minors, .180, he'll be a good player for them. He has no power so scoring runs is his game.

Geoff Geary - 30 year old relief pitcher. Geary's career numbers are: 13-4 with a 3.94 ERA/ 5.8 K's/ 2.9 BB's. Acceptable K to BB ratio of 2.0. After a fine 2006 in which he went 7-1 with a 2.96 ERA and a fine K to BB ratio of 3.0, Geary was 3-2 with a 4.41 ERA and a K to BB ratio of just 1.5 last year. His career minor league numbers a pretty good at: 52-33 with a 3.25 ERA and K to BB ratio of 4.0. Geary has talent and the Astros have acquired a very serviceable reliever. He does not have Brad Lidge's stuff but he's not a bad pitcher.

Mike Costanzo - will be 24 years old. Has yet to play above AA. His career minor league numbers are: 1293 at bats/ 211 runs/ 52 HR's/ 217 RBI's/ .266 avg/ .364 OBP/ .456 SLG. So his run average is .163, his HR average is .04 and his RBI average is .168. That would be decent major league player if Costanzo could duplicate those numbers at the big league level. He is getting a little old to be considered a prospect anymore considering he has yet to play above AA in the minors. He could be a decent major league player but has little or no star talent.

So who got the better of this trade? Lidge has the most talent of anybody involved in this trade. If he pitches back to the way he did in 2004-2005 the Phillies have made a great trade and got the best of this deal. However if Lidge pitchers the way he did in 2006 then the Astros have acquired three serviceable players for someone who would not help their team.

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